"So it's clear that not only did they let the attack happen, they may have even compromised their own army's ability to fend it off."
I'm with you up to that point, but that's where you lose me. You're making assumptions in the previous sentence and then using those assumptions to state this conclusion as "clear". However, since you and I talked about that last time, I won't belabor it other than to point you back to Hanlon's caution about attributing to conspiracy that which incompetence is sufficient to explain. One of the things Ukraine has made clear is that reality sometimes puts to shame our assumptions of a given nation's military competence. Helmuth von Moltke's saying that "no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy" sometimes cuts in your favor, as it seems to have done for both Ukraine and Hamas/Gaza.
I am curious how the Abraham Accords (pioneered by Trump and Netanyahu but publicly continued by Biden & Bennett/Netanyahu) factors into your equation. It seems to undercut your case about US deep state backing for a ME destabilizing, Israeli military campaign.
You're correct, I think, that US strategic interest in Israel is waning (a good thing for us, probably not for them). In the next decade we're likely going back to treating the Middle East the same way we treat Africa... ignoring it.
If the IDF had key assets repositioned away from Gaza at the time of the attack, and if there was an abnormally long delay in mustering an adequate counter-response to the attack - two points that don't seem to be controversial - then those in Israeli intelligence who had foreknowledge of the attack deliberately compromised its own army's ability to ward off the attack. And my contention is that this was deliberate since it ensured that a critical amount of damage would be caused: enough to justify the cleansing of Gaza, an operation the Israeli oligarchs already had plans for.
As far as the Abraham Accords, that was one of several factors that came in to ensure that Hamas would launch its all-or-nothing attack, which then sets the stage for the counter-response by Israel. I don't think the Deep State actually intended to institutionalize them. One supportive bit of evidence for this is that the US's continual support of Israel's cleansing campaign is having the direct effect of undermining those Accords and making it impossible for any type of normalization treaty to emerge. I think a major reshuffling of power relations in the Middle East is the objective.
It's important to keep in mind that all of this is taking place in the context of the Great Reset, so who knows what the real goal here is.
"If the IDF had key assets repositioned away from Gaza at the time of the attack, and if there was an abnormally long delay in mustering an adequate counter-response to the attack - two points that don't seem to be controversial - then those in Israeli intelligence who had foreknowledge of the attack "
Your conclusion is certainly a possibility, but it is by no means the only one. 2 years of relative calm, gradual détente with Hamas, reopening of borders, work permits for Gazans, a Sabbath day, a more active Hezbollah in Lebanon... I see mistakes more than conspiracy.
However, the last 7 years have made me less willing to dismiss such ideas as absurd, so perhaps you're right.
"So it's clear that not only did they let the attack happen, they may have even compromised their own army's ability to fend it off."
I'm with you up to that point, but that's where you lose me. You're making assumptions in the previous sentence and then using those assumptions to state this conclusion as "clear". However, since you and I talked about that last time, I won't belabor it other than to point you back to Hanlon's caution about attributing to conspiracy that which incompetence is sufficient to explain. One of the things Ukraine has made clear is that reality sometimes puts to shame our assumptions of a given nation's military competence. Helmuth von Moltke's saying that "no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy" sometimes cuts in your favor, as it seems to have done for both Ukraine and Hamas/Gaza.
I am curious how the Abraham Accords (pioneered by Trump and Netanyahu but publicly continued by Biden & Bennett/Netanyahu) factors into your equation. It seems to undercut your case about US deep state backing for a ME destabilizing, Israeli military campaign.
You're correct, I think, that US strategic interest in Israel is waning (a good thing for us, probably not for them). In the next decade we're likely going back to treating the Middle East the same way we treat Africa... ignoring it.
Hey Brian,
If the IDF had key assets repositioned away from Gaza at the time of the attack, and if there was an abnormally long delay in mustering an adequate counter-response to the attack - two points that don't seem to be controversial - then those in Israeli intelligence who had foreknowledge of the attack deliberately compromised its own army's ability to ward off the attack. And my contention is that this was deliberate since it ensured that a critical amount of damage would be caused: enough to justify the cleansing of Gaza, an operation the Israeli oligarchs already had plans for.
As far as the Abraham Accords, that was one of several factors that came in to ensure that Hamas would launch its all-or-nothing attack, which then sets the stage for the counter-response by Israel. I don't think the Deep State actually intended to institutionalize them. One supportive bit of evidence for this is that the US's continual support of Israel's cleansing campaign is having the direct effect of undermining those Accords and making it impossible for any type of normalization treaty to emerge. I think a major reshuffling of power relations in the Middle East is the objective.
It's important to keep in mind that all of this is taking place in the context of the Great Reset, so who knows what the real goal here is.
"If the IDF had key assets repositioned away from Gaza at the time of the attack, and if there was an abnormally long delay in mustering an adequate counter-response to the attack - two points that don't seem to be controversial - then those in Israeli intelligence who had foreknowledge of the attack "
Your conclusion is certainly a possibility, but it is by no means the only one. 2 years of relative calm, gradual détente with Hamas, reopening of borders, work permits for Gazans, a Sabbath day, a more active Hezbollah in Lebanon... I see mistakes more than conspiracy.
However, the last 7 years have made me less willing to dismiss such ideas as absurd, so perhaps you're right.