"So it's clear that not only did they let the attack happen, they may have even compromised their own army's ability to fend it off."

I'm with you up to that point, but that's where you lose me. You're making assumptions in the previous sentence and then using those assumptions to state this conclusion as "clear". However, since you and I talked about that last time, I won't belabor it other than to point you back to Hanlon's caution about attributing to conspiracy that which incompetence is sufficient to explain. One of the things Ukraine has made clear is that reality sometimes puts to shame our assumptions of a given nation's military competence. Helmuth von Moltke's saying that "no battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy" sometimes cuts in your favor, as it seems to have done for both Ukraine and Hamas/Gaza.

I am curious how the Abraham Accords (pioneered by Trump and Netanyahu but publicly continued by Biden & Bennett/Netanyahu) factors into your equation. It seems to undercut your case about US deep state backing for a ME destabilizing, Israeli military campaign.

You're correct, I think, that US strategic interest in Israel is waning (a good thing for us, probably not for them). In the next decade we're likely going back to treating the Middle East the same way we treat Africa... ignoring it.

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